Tuesday night MACtion is back, and we’ve got three games on the docket. Here’s a breakdown of where we’re putting our money, including a few player props!
Game 1: Central Michigan at Toledo (-14.5), Total: 52
Pick: CMU Team Total Over 17.5 Points
Toledo comes into this game as a hefty 14.5-point favorite, and given Central Michigan’s recent QB carousel, it’s easy to understand why. CMU has struggled offensively over the past few weeks, not scoring more than 17 points in either of their last two games. However, this week’s matchup might offer a chance to break through, at least a bit.
Here’s why I’m taking a shot at CMU’s team total over 17.5:
Quarterback Stability: CMU’s QB situation has been in flux, but a full week of practice for their new starter should bring at least a marginal boost. While Toledo’s defense is tough, the continuity here could set up the Chippewas to exploit any defensive lapses Toledo might have.
Run-Heavy Attack: The lack of a passing game is a challenge, but CMU can still make things happen on the ground. They’re likely to lean heavily on the run, especially as they get more comfortable with their offensive identity. We could see some big plays emerge if Toledo isn’t on top of their run defense from the start.
This is a gutsy play given CMU’s recent struggles, but 17.5 feels low for a team looking to make strides offensively.
Game 2: Ball State at Buffalo (-3.5), Total: 55.5
Picks: Ball State +3.5, Semonza Over 214.5 Passing Yards (Adjusted Line -185)
This matchup is intriguing for a lot of reasons. Buffalo being a home favorite by 3.5 points feels almost too obvious given their five wins on the year versus Ball State’s three.
Here’s why we’re rolling with Ball State on the spread and a Semonza passing prop:
Fade the Obvious Line: Buffalo has the better record, and they’re playing at home, so a 3.5-point spread feels almost too good to be true. That’s precisely why we’re taking Ball State here. The Cardinals will need a strong performance from QB Kadin Semonza, especially if they want to keep up with Buffalo, and he’s shown he’s capable of producing under pressure.
Exploiting Buffalo’s Secondary: Buffalo’s pass defense has had some rough outings, and that’s where Semonza comes in. We’re taking him on an adjusted line to hit over 214.5 passing yards. Semonza has been able to exploit weaker pass defenses this season, and if Ball State’s going to keep this close (or even cover), they’ll need him to push the ball through the air.
With both the spread and Semonza’s prop, we’re banking on Ball State’s offense stepping up. Expect this game to be closer than the spread might suggest.
Game 3: Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-9.5), Total: 57.5
Pick: BGSU’s RB Stewart Over 88 Rushing Yards (Adjusted Line -179)
The line in this game feels a bit high. Both WMU and BGSU are top teams in the MAC, but a 9.5-point spread in favor of Bowling Green is a bit surprising. WMU’s defense is indeed shaky, but that big spread makes me wary.
Here’s why we’re instead focusing on Bowling Green’s running game, specifically Terion Stewart’s rushing prop:
Stewart’s Recent Success: BGSU’s RB Terion Stewart has been on a roll, hitting this line in three straight games. He’s clearly comfortable with this workload, and against a WMU defense that has been susceptible to the run, he’s set up well to hit 88+ yards again.
Weak WMU Defense: Western Michigan’s defense has been inconsistent, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Stewart’s volume and recent production make this prop appealing, as BGSU will likely lean on him to control the tempo.
Summary of Picks:
CMU Team Total Over 17.5 Points
Ball State +3.5
Semonza Over 214.5 Passing Yards (Adjusted Line -185)
BGSU’s Terion Stewart Over 88 Rushing Yards (Adjusted Line -179)
As always, tread carefully in the world of MACtion—it’s the wild west of college football. These plays are all about identifying potential advantages in line mismatches and player props. Good luck!
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