Quite honestly, this board sucks and is full of traps! Real mature of Vegas doing this as we are all trying to build a bankroll for March. However, I have found 3 plays that I'm going to take, but just note that I've been more confident in recent plays.
I have my plays ranked in confidence level; 1 being the most confident, and 3 being my least confident play. These are my 3 favorite plays of the day.
#3 Umass/Fordham u138 (-110)
Umass is the wildcard in this game. They score 75 a game and rely heavily on the 3 for their success. In turn, their defense is sloppy, and they allow 78 per game which is why their overall record is 12-15. I've watched a little of UMASS, and it's kind of funny to watch. They just launch the ball at will and sometimes they have good days, and others they can't buy a basket. Fordham is the opposite. They score 66 a game and allow 66. They are slow paced, few turnovers, and play possession basketball. I'm hoping with that their slow tempo and descent defense can stop UMASS from scoring in the 80's.
#2 UNC/Syracuse u162(bought 7 points) + Washington State ML (-110)
Both UNC and Syracuse have high scoring offenses and below average defenses, but recently, their totals have been low. I have a really hard time seeing both these teams scoring in the 80's, but to make sure, I bought a couple points to give myself a cushion. Hoping for a total in the 140's and think that is really reasonable. Washington State plays at Oregon State, who might be the worst power 5 team in the country. They are winless in the Pac12, and besides taking USC to double OT, they loss my 15+ points a game. Wazzu is middle of the road but should be able to win this game with ease.
#1 San Diego State/Wyoming o129(-110)
This might be the most interesting game on the board today. Wyoming hasn't lost at home this year, and despite that fact, they are a 1.5 point dog to SDSU. This seems like a trap and is why I'm staying away from the spread. SDSU's defense has been all the hype as they hold opponents to 57 points a game. This is really impressive, but Wyoming's 23-5 record and their 75 points per game sounds more impressive to me. There is no question this is going to be a close game, and hats off to the Aztecs if they can hold Wyoming to under 60. Just have a really hard time wrapping my head around that possibility, which is why I believe points will be flowing tonight!
Notable games to stay away from:
Wyoming +1.5
UNC -8.5
Central Connecticut +3.5
Iowa -10.5
I truly believe all of those are trap lines that Vegas wants you to bet on. I would encourage you to research those lines to see where the big money is going before you place an impulse bet!
As always, Good Luck, Good Scores, and Godspeed!
Toxic
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